Oxnard - CA Summary
- Richard Murillo
- Apr 10, 2018
- 4 min read
The Oxnard retail market’s fundamentals show a relatively stagnant market. Job growth has been strong, and the median household income continues to exceed the national median; however, the labor force is near full employment, and a shortage of workers in various industries hinders economic growth. The effects from the Thomas fire have yet to be fully realized, but recent headlines suggest that local consumers reduced holiday spending. Historically, natural catastrophes of this magnitude induce outsized spending at home improvement stores to rebuild and repair homes and commercial properties in the following year.
Strong absorption in 2017 compressed vacancies below the historical average, but numerous large buildings vacated in 18Q1. The average rent declined slightly year-over-year after several years of moderate gains. Transaction volume in 2017 slowed from the previous year’s record high, largely due to a decline in the number of trades as well as in the size of the assets traded.
Oxnard - CA Vacancy Overview
The Oxnard metro includes the coastal towns of Oxnard, Ventura, and Port Hueneme, the employment hub of Thousand Oaks, and the bedroom communities of Moorpark and Camarillo. Retail is supported by the metro’s local residents and by the thousands of tourists that visit year-round.
The metro has one of the highest median household incomes in Southern California—about $80,000—roughly 33% higher than Los Angeles's and about 25% higher than California's. At the same time, the economy has stagnated in recent years, and the minimal job growth has been restricted mainly to the government, hospitality, education, and health sectors. Approximately 80,000 metro residents—nearly one-quarter of the working population—commute to workplaces outside of the metro, such as LA and Santa Barbara. Many of these commuters leave for a wider variety of high-paying jobs. Unfortunately, they also take some of their daytime spending with them.
Persistent out-migration due to the slow-growing economy and a lack of housing have weighed on population growth. Strong local opposition to development and California’s cumbersome approval processes inhibit large-scale residential development. However, a substantial number of apartments are in the pipeline and slated to deliver in 2018, which bodes well for consumer spending in the long run.
Many tourists are attracted to the beautiful coast in close proximity to Los Angeles. The Camarillo Premium Outlets are another one of the metro’s top tourist destinations, bringing thousands of shoppers to the metro annually. While a majority of tourists are domestic, various shuttle services transport international travelers who fly into LAX to the Central Coast. The recent Thomas fire likely deterred many holiday shoppers, but larger retailers likely have the resources to carry forward.
Demand for retail improved in 2016 and 2017. Over 550,000 SF were absorbed in 2017, putting the vacancy rate under 4%. A few major new leases came to big box space. For example, Restoration Hardware Outlet and Design Within Reach Outlet took a total of approximately 50,000 SF, leasing the former Office Depot and Sports Chalet spaces, respectively. Regal Cinema leased 40,000 SF in the Janss Marketplace in Thousands Oaks, previously occupied by Regency Theaters, after major renovations to modernize the movie theater; Ulta Beauty also recently leased space in the Janss Marketplace. Early into 2018, numerous big stores have closed, one of which is Babies R Us in Simi Valley as the retailer has filed for bankruptcy.
Updated: Mar 20, 2018
Net Absorption, Deliveries and Vacancy
Availability Rate
Oxnard - CA Rent Trends
Rents declined in 2017, a trend few metros in the nation experienced. Prior to 2017, rents had underperformed the national average. Rents have also underperformed in the neighboring Santa Barbara market, while Los Angeles rents grew over the year at the same rate as the national average.
Macro trends appear to be affecting rent growth to a larger extent than preferences for certain asset types, as virtually all retail inventory posted weak gains. The highest gross asking rents in the metro are in the Thousand Oaks/SE County Submarket, home to the over 1.2 million SF Pacific View Mall and the affluent communities of Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park. The second-highest asking rents are in the Camarillo/Point Mugu Submarket, which draws thousands of daily shoppers to the area largely due to the presence of the Camarillo Premium Outlets.
Updated: Feb 08, 2018
Gross Asking Rent Per Square Foot
Oxnard - CA Supply Trends
New retail construction has been infrequent in Oxnard for the past several years. Annual net deliveries have been less than 100,000 SF since 2012, after the 2011 spike from the delivery of a 180,000 SF Lowe’s and 150,000 SF Target. The only significant project tin 2017 was the January delivery of a 28,600 SF freestanding building in The Collection at RiverPark shopping center.
After initially being proposed over nine years ago, the Amara Regional Shopping Center is finally set to begin construction in the first half of 2018. Being developed by a partnership between Primestor and Selleck Properties, Amara will be approximately 500,000 SF built on around 45 acres on the south side of the 101 Freeway in close proximity to the Camarillo Premium Outlets. Primestor is preleasing for the mix of anchor, shop, and restaurant space.
Updated: Feb 08, 2018
Ventura Net Deliveries
Under Construction In Square Feet
Oxnard - CA Investment Trends
Transaction volume in Oxnard retail in 2017 is markedly lower than 2016's record high. The overall number of transactions declined year-over-year, and the properties that have traded were smaller on average, on both a dollar and SF basis, than those in 2016.
The largest transaction of 2017 was the September sale of Oxnard Vineyards in the Oxnard/Port Hueneme Submarket to 2690 Vineyard LLC by Loja Real Estate LLC. The fully leased 102,000 SF center anchored by Vallarta Supermarkets and Fallas Discount Stores sold for $24.5 million ($240/SF) at a 5.4% cap rate. In comparison, the largest sale of 2016 was of the 147,000 SF North Ranch Shopping Center in the Thousand Oaks/SE County Submarket for $122.8 million ($833/SF) by Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. The center is anchored by Ralphs, Rite Aid, Trader Joes, and Petco and was 100% leased at the time of sale.
Updated: Feb 08, 2018
Sales Volume & Price Per SF Index
Price Per SF Index
Cap Rate Trends
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